THE IMPACT OF INVESTMENT ON REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Abstract

This thesis examines whether prior-year fixed-asset investment intensity predicts short-run regional economic growth in Uzbekistan. A balanced panel of 14 first-level territories for 2018–2024 (98 region-year observations) combines official investment, gross regional product (GRP) and real GRP growth series. A two-way fixed-effects regression controls for persistent regional differences and common year shocks; standard errors are clustered by region. The estimated association between a one-percentage-point increase in the lagged investment-to-GRP ratio and subsequent real GRP growth is −0.009 percentage points (standard error 0.029; 95% confidence interval −0.072 to 0.053; p = 0.752). Excluding Navoi region and Tashkent city yields a similar estimate. The data do not establish a detectable one-year growth response, but this result cannot rule out effects over longer horizons or differences in investment quality. The estimates describe association, not a causal impact.